Crooked Goose

Russia's conditions for ending the war in Ukraine include a written guarantee from Western leaders that they will not expand NATO to the east. According to sources close to the negotiations, the proposal for a ceasefire that Russia has committed to drafting with Ukraine also includes a demand that the West suspend part of the sanctions imposed on Russia. Moscow is also demanding Ukraine's neutrality, the lifting of some Western sanctions, a resolution to the issue of frozen Russian sovereign assets in the West, and protection for Russian speakers in Ukraine. If Putin sees that he cannot reach a peace agreement on his own terms, he will seek to show the Ukrainians and Europeans through military victories that 'peace tomorrow will be even more painful'. 'If Putin sees a tactical opportunity on the battlefield, he will advance even deeper into Ukraine - and the Kremlin believes that Russia could fight for years, regardless of the sanctions and economic problems imposed by the West,' said a high-ranking Russian source familiar with the Kremlin's thinking, speaking on condition of anonymity. Putin is willing to make peace, but not at any price. The demands may further complicate the negotiations for a ceasefire that US President Donald Trump is trying to mediate. Since taking office, Trump has expressed his desire to end the conflict, which is the deadliest in Europe since World War II, and has shown a growing frustration with Putin. On Tuesday, Trump said that Putin was 'playing with fire' by refusing to start negotiations with Kiev, while his forces were making gains on the battlefield. After talking to Trump for over two hours last week, Putin said he had agreed to work with Ukraine on a memorandum outlining the contours of a peace agreement, including the timing of a ceasefire. Russia is currently redrafting its version of the memorandum and cannot estimate how long this will take. Kiev and European governments have accused Moscow of stalling an agreement to allow its troops to advance in eastern Ukraine. The Kremlin has not responded to a request for comment on the Reuters report. Ukraine has said that Russia should not have a veto over its aspirations to join NATO, which would be a strong security guarantee, capable of deterring any future Russian attack. NATO has also said in the past that it will not change its 'open door' policy just because Moscow demands it. A NATO spokesperson did not respond to Reuters' questions. The cost of the war is currently being felt by Russia and Ukraine in terms of losses and military spending. Russia currently controls less than a quarter of Ukraine. Although Russian advances have accelerated in recent years, the war is costing Russia and Ukraine dearly in terms of lives lost and military spending. The price of oil, the base of the Russian economy, has fallen this year. Trump, who takes pride in his friendly relations with Putin and has expressed his belief that the Russian leader wants peace, warned that Washington could impose new sanctions if Moscow delays efforts to reach a peace agreement. The US president suggested on social media on Sunday that Putin had 'gone crazy' after launching a massive air strike on Ukraine last week. Putin has repeatedly returned to the issue of NATO expansion, including in his most detailed comments on a possible peace in 2024. In 2021, just two months before the Russian invasion, Moscow proposed a project with NATO members that, under Article 6, would obligate NATO to 'refrain from any new expansion, including Ukraine's accession and that of other states'. US and NATO diplomats said at the time that Russia could not veto NATO expansion. Putin wants a written commitment from NATO because he believes that Moscow was deceived by the United States after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, when US Secretary of State James Baker assured Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would not expand to the east. However, this argument is disputed by those involved. According to reports from all those present at the conversations after the fall of the Berlin Wall, during a meeting in Moscow in February 1990, US Secretary of State James Baker asked Mikhail Gorbachev informally if he would accept German reunification if the US made a promise not to station troops in East Germany, but also not to expand NATO beyond Germany. Gorbachev replied that he would be open to the proposal. According to the columnist of the Estadão and professor of International Relations at FGV-SP, Oliver Stuenkel, 'when Baker returned to Washington, he was disavowed by President Bush, who preferred to keep all options open. In addition to Baker, Hans-Dietrich Genscher, German Chancellor, fearing that the Russians might prevent reunification, made a series of speeches saying that Germany would like to join NATO, but that NATO would not expand to Eastern Europe. He was also disavowed by Helmut Kohl, who realized the Russian weakness'. Leaders of Western Europe have said that if Russia wins the war in Ukraine, it may one day attack NATO - a step that could lead to a world war.' jornaldebrasilia.com.br/noticias/mundo/para-fim-da-guerra-na-ucrania-putin-exige-que-otan-nao-se-expanda-ate-a-fronteira-com-a-russia